Friday, June 3, 2011

McArdle's Summary of the Greek Default Dominos

After she summarizes another author's post, she summarizes her thoughts:
The most compelling argument against my belief that the euro can't last is simply that it's so . . . damn . . . hard to get out.  The country that does it will suffer immensely.

On the other hand, people do snap their currency pegs when they're already suffering a great deal.  And while the PIIGS are suffering now, that's nothing compared to what will happen if their economies stay in the slough of despond, and the governments and central banks of more solvent countries run out of money and/or patience to continue the subsidies they're now receiving.  

I've only been writing about finance for seven years, and I've already watched a bunch of "unthinkable' and "impossible" actions, from Argentina's devaluation and serial defaults, to my own government nationalizing GM.  The unthinkable gets thunk surprisingly often.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/06/what-a-greek-default-looks-like/239856/

This is the logical end of government control of an economy, as manifested through unions.  Guess who will be harmed the most?  Not the rich, they got out or covered their bets long ago.

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