Sunday, March 29, 2020

Cost Benefit Must Be Discussed

There is a growing consensus that Q2 could be the second worst economic quarter in the history of our country, only behind the worst quarter of the Great Depression.  Meanwhile, total US deaths thus far are 350.  This number will ultimately be much higher, but how high does it need to go before it justifies another Great Depression?

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening-the-curve-is-overrated/?fbclid=IwAR2hGVIYf2gK2EaiTSlSIcDgtJW7Vg5COaKnlkM4kNglnlFEG1P3Kop9cqI

Another one that asks great questions:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

Useful To Consider About Infection Rates ...

and other thoughts, worth the long read.

From the CDC’s study on transmission in China and Princess Cruise outbreak -
A growing body of evidence indicates that COVID-19 transmission is facilitated in confined settings; for example, a large cluster (634 confirmed cases) of COVID-19 secondary infections occurred aboard a cruise ship in Japan, representing about one fifth of the persons aboard who were tested for the virus. This finding indicates the high transmissibility of COVID-19 in enclosed spaces
Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine echoes this finding,
“If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%”
According to Dr. Auwaerter, these transmission rates are very similar to the seasonal flu.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

On the Basics of Capitalism aka Cooperative Exchange


A reminder of the basic ideas of corporations and risk.

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-the-wrong-coronavirus-stimulus-20200323-h6erlkfgvjg5vlmrizphmgpdb4-story.html
It is not Tamny's easiest writing to understand but I wish I could master his ability to cut through all of the incorrect thoughts we all share about what government is and is not, and how little people understand what they are talking about when they talk about the actions of governments against the people that fund them.

To which one assumes conservatives will reply per the editorial that this is a “liquidity panic," and since it is, the federal government must step in. Except that tight liquidity is a market signal like any other; in this case one logically signaling horror on the part of investors that politicians on all levels are in the process of forcing a centrally planned economic reversal on the most dynamic economy in the world. Conservatives claim to revere market signals, market signals are presently telling politicians to stop the economic asphyxiation they’re forcing on the economy, but conservatives want taxpayers to blunt the signal?
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/03/18/dear_conservatives_if_you_bail_out_everyone_you_bail_out_no_one_486845.html?mc_cid=cdc4762403&mc_eid=7eb43cc72c

A Well Stated Case Against MFA

My thanks to the author.

In a moment like this, with a virus that causes respiratory distress, my two children who have cystic fibrosis may be determined too costly to save. Before the virus hit, a recent ICER report determined that the cost of life-extending medication for CF sufferers wasn’t worth it, even if it was a full cure.
That’s why Medicare for All is so scary. The known practices of withholding care in government-run plans has the potential to put all Americans at risk, no matter the illness. Just this week, the National Council on Disability asked  the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to take proactive steps so that care will not be denied to those with chronic illnesses and disabilities. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/28/medicare_for_all_scares_me_more_than_coronavirus_142779.html

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Iceland, Biden Accusation, Unemployed

This will go no where. Three of the greatest heroes in Democratic party lore were far, far worse than Biden's accused of being - Teddy, John and Bill best him easily and they still love those 3.

Who ever timed the notification of this accusation - well played and dirty.
According to Joe Biden, Biden Should Step Down

You may have had this - apparently half of those infected have no symptoms.
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms

We're all wrestling with uncertainty - those with the fewest resources bear the most risk of economic failures
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/coronavirus-unemployed.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Phase II

Managing the pandemic well doesn’t mean eradication; it means that our ability to mitigate how many people die—our ability to isolate those sick, test their contacts, care for them in available intensive-care beds with available respirators—is working. Social distancing, currently our primary tool to manage the burdens on our health-care system, will eventually give way to efforts to quickly identify those infected, before they can expose others, and also to treat those already exposed. Even before a vaccine is available, the United States will fall into a steady-state suppression effort—which is to say, life will go on, even as public-health officials play whack-a-mole with individual outbreaks.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/there-isnt-going-be-all-clear-signal/608512/

Sunday, March 15, 2020

What? The "Media" Has An Agenda?

There has been no shortage of reporting on the business dealings of Trump’s children and son-in-law. Can anyone imagine Trump dismissing questions about his adult children with personal insults and a CNN reporter turning around and saying it was a “human moment” showing “authenticity”? What about Biden’s threat to “slap” the union worker while pointing a finger at him in close quarters? If Trump did that, would the media describe him as “forceful but composed”?
Similarly, the media are anxious to defend Biden this time around by bowling right over the facts. ABC News’ chief political analyst Matthew Dowd said the exchange over guns with a union worker was a “net plus” because "voters are sick of the typical political speak ... Voters want somebody that they can trust, and is genuine, and has believability.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/13/media_attempts_to_spin_bidens_tirade_into_a_triumph.html

It is sadly comic that Joe Biden, at least as dirty as anything Trump's been accused of, is looking to be the contestant to Trump. I am as shocked that he's still a candidate, given the Hunter issues, as I was that the GOP picked Trump 4 years ago. 

Shows what I know. 

Why Americans insist on electing a nearly endless train of buffoons and demand that they take more and more power to the government is baffling. All of the bad presidents in history are the case for libertarian solutions - to a tiny majority who can see it.  

I'm completely bored by the obvious assertion that the "media" has an agenda - they need ratings and they say whatever is needed to get the most people to watch their entertainment shows - but of course, someone has to keep saying it. It isn't interesting, just true. 


Saturday, March 14, 2020

Swine Flu Apparently Worse Than Thought

Flu mostly kills older folks, H1N1 struck a younger band - recent analysis of the data indicates H1N1 killed as many as ten times more previously believed. 12,000 US deaths was the CDC estimate. 

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/how-many-deaths-were-caused-by-swine-flu-in-the-us 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/12/limbaugh_remember_the_swine_flu_panic_60_million_americans_infected_300000_hospitalized.html

So how's that travel ban working out for the US?

US doing much better than the Euros at this point.  If everything is "racist" the term will fail to matter.
https://townhall.com/columnists/johnrlottjr/2020/03/12/quantifying-how-well-the-trump-administration-is-doing-on-coronavirus-n2564867

It's a being a liability to the government. You could also say it is a bitch being a liability to an insurance company - the difference is insurance companies compete for your business, and the government is going broke "taking care" of our parents. 25% of total medical costs are incurred in the last year of life. Perfect health care cannot be provided to all due to the cost. Incentives within this process are all wrong.

It would be best if we all picked the terms of our end and took the steps to define that through legal documents - but we don't. This guy is the bow wave of advocacy for "I am too expensive to keep alive, let me die". All good - until it becomes policy.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/joe-biden-coronavirus-adviser-ezekiel-emanuel-wants-to-die-at-75/

I'm an advocate for liberal trade - but trading with a monstrous tyrant may be a strategic mistake even if it is otherwise a benefit to consumers (better value to consumers provided by a subsidized, subjugated workforce).
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-exploit-control-of-pharmaceutical-exports-by-brahma-chellaney-2020-03



Wednesday, March 4, 2020

There's Dirty Work Afoot Here Lads

And this is just part of it, as is fairly well documented in "A Disgrace To The Profession".

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/02/28/the-academic-blacklist-climate-alarmists-dont-want-you-to-know-about/ 

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Dyson, fair winds and following seas on the journey ...

Dr. Dyson called himself a scientific heretic and warned against the temptation of confusing mathematical abstractions with ultimate truth. Although his own early work on QED helped bring photons and electrons into a consistent framework, Dr. Dyson doubted that superstrings, or anything else, would lead to a Theory of Everything, unifying all of physics with a succinct formulation inscribable on a T-shirt.
In a speech in 2000 when he accepted the Templeton Prize for Progress in Religion, Dr. Dyson quoted Francis Bacon: “God forbid that we should give out a dream of our own imagination for a pattern of the world.”
Relishing the role of iconoclast, he confounded the scientific establishment by dismissing the consensus about the perils of man-made climate change as “tribal group-thinking.” He doubted the veracity of the climate models, and he exasperated experts with sanguine predictions they found rooted less in science than in wishfulness: Excess carbon in the air is good for plants, and global warming might forestall another ice age.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/science/freeman-dyson-dead.html

Monday, March 2, 2020

Suicide Crisis

This is going to boil down to meaning. Interesting to note that the authors never mention the change in the significance of the church in the lives of Americans, as the church is what taught our culture that human life matters. I have not been a believer in years, although I wish that I were.

Post modern culture, or whatever you want to call our present schizophrenic perception of the meaning of human life, doesn't, as Jung put it, "relativize the pain of this life." I would put the school shootings phenomenon in the same pot of "loss of meaning".

https://freebeacon.com/issues/the-curious-case-of-americas-suicide-crisis/

Sunday, March 1, 2020

Thursday nights, smoking a cigar, drinking diet coke and eating pizza ...

...with sun dried tomatoes, mozzarella and pepperoni in a small dojo office in Bath, Maine, in the 90s.

My teacher, Al Gardner (we called him by the Japanese term, sensei), was a very interesting man. Musician, athlete, fighter, teacher; he was morbidly obese, 2nd generation Armenian (Bardesbanian was the family name) and very charismatic. He was much more than that, too, but that's all I can come up with for now. I loved him and trained hard and got as much as I could from my time in the dojo. And I received a lot from the time I spent there. I gained the social benefits of a hard working but caring group of fellow students, I was given a chance to train children and give them what I had to offer. I had a life long fascination with the martial arts and its promise of transformation. I was learning, growing, receiving appreciation and getting and giving love. A single male in my late 20s - along with a career with its many ups and downs - what could have been better?

The most valuable thing my teacher taught me wasn't how to beat an opponent in a fight, or to be a fearless master of my human frailty, or to find inner peace through meditation. He taught me the overwhelming value of dialogue.

On the aforementioned Thursday nights, he and I would chew the fat. "The fat" included politics, martial arts, his stories, current events, and events at the dojo. We both liked guns and were fascinated with strength, physical power and music, and we were both intoxicated by the charms of the opposite gender.

And it's a good thing we had those things in common. He was a Yankee, I was a southerner. He was out of the rat race after earning a degree from one of the top ten undergraduate colleges in the US, I was a lieutenant in the USN, a Naval Aviator, learning how to conduct war from an airplane. I came from a Christian background and sympathized with the Israelis. He was in tune with the sorrow of the Palestinians. He was a life long democrat and read Time Magazine every week (which I scoffed at involuntarily and rudely). I was a Reagan Republican but realizing in small ways that I didn't like the GOP as much as I wanted to. I think he had used more drugs than I even knew existed, but also left that all behind. I was getting drug tested by the government routinely, had been a police officer before I joined the USN, and limited my intoxicants to beer, and bad beer at that.

As I gained confidence in my safety with him, in my sense that the relationship was real enough that I could speak more freely, I ventured into conversations about the parts of life, the universe and everything on which we disagreed.

I am a nerd and few people I have known have been willing to indulge me in the chase for ideas, the testing of beliefs and the learning that results when thoughts of two different people can mix and mature with honest feedback. It turns out that Al was welcoming of the dialogue.

He never convinced me to believe what he believed. I never convinced him to believe what I believed. Our beliefs should have been a threat to each other. The human connection, the friendship, love and respect we held with each other overcame the human instinct to be right or dominant.

I gained an invaluable insight in those moments with Al, greater than an understanding of what martial arts is, greater than learning a traditional martial arts system (more accurately, small parts of 4 systems). I learned that underneath the disagreement is an assumption, and if I can get to the assumption of someone that believes differently than I do, I'll be able to accept the legitimacy of the belief and honor their humanity in spite of the fear their different belief generates in me.

Sometimes, people believe what they do based on insufficient knowledge, but far more often, their fundamental assumption on a topic drives what they learn.

Discussion to convince will rarely if ever generate enough safety to allow either party to discover the other party's foundational assumption, even if the other party knows to look for it, and thus is a wasted effort.

A caveat to the above conclusion is that there may be a side benefit in that honest discussion helps others who how similar beliefs to see they are not alone, however, if that is the point, it can still be made without questioning the intentions or humanity of those who believe differently.

Another caveat - once the politicians, of either party, make their way to the stage to do battle, they are there to win and they will either lie, cheat, steal or bully their way to a win or they will be eliminated from the political gene pool. Our "political leaders" are the best humans on the planet at doing anything to win while claiming their own virtue exceeds that of their opponent. Fools that we are, we believe them.

The practice of professing belief without expecting to win over or change the beliefs of others is not particularly rewarding in the short term, it's much more sporting to try to win the internet with a snappy quip designed to disparage the beliefs of others. I don't think it is going to be the new rage. I'll keep at it as a celebration of the gift of Al's time and attention. 

"It is not what we don't know that gets us, it is what we know that just ain't so."

The short version - the ultra thin plastic bags people think are going to "destroy" the planet are better than all of the alternatives.

https://www.city-journal.org/needless-panic-over-disposable-plastic?fbclid=IwAR1kgafUKfGyuAmncSJwgWlS0lZ_4PSMoGWzyQq5ZuWRvHlqeC1dI2JIxtU