Sunday, September 16, 2018

Deaths, guesses and empty headed critics

Another installment of lies, damned lies and statistics. "Believe nothing you hear and half of what you read." Coach John Inman

I think he may have been a little to generous about believing what you read. In theory I favor anything that helps people stop believing that politicians are anything but idiots, but I don't think lying or being careless about truth is the best path ahead.

"Actually, “official death toll” is exactly what it is not. Meyers not only acted even more childishly than the president he was belittling, but he was being intellectually lazy as well. Moreover, such comments confirmed a key part of Trump’s claim: His critics have definitely exploited Puerto Rico’s suffering to hammer the president."

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Losing a Kid Who Took Himself Away From You

A good read, a somber read, read it.

Pick a Date, Any Date - GW Still?

"Or, you can pick a different start date to your liking.  How about 1998?  That will give you an entire 20 year run.  It's hard to say that the verb "is" should cover a period of more than 20 years.  On the UAH series you can see that temperatures have also fallen about 0.4 deg C since early 1998.  Again, even on this substantially longer scale, the earth "is cooling."  (Note, however, that there is a significant difference between the Wikipedia chart and the UAH satellite series as to what has happened since 1998.  On the Wikipedia chart the latest reading (2017?) is up about 0.3 deg C from 1998; while on the UAH series, the latest reading (July 2018) is down about 0.4 deg C from the then-records set in 1998.  That's those "adjustments" in the surface temperature record that I was talking about.  I would say that there is no credible position that the heavily adjusted surface temperature record that Wikipedia relies on should be used for this purpose over the far more accurate and un-tampered UAH satellite record.)"

As a friend said, if you own the data set, you own everything. If you can "adjust" the temps due to your calculations for known distortions, you win.

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - what do we know?

It is essential that we look at data, and it is easy to be fooled by what we find when looking at the data.

Publish the data with the conclusions, let others review it, that's the first step towards legit science. 

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Plastic in the Ocean from Where?

Where does the plastic come from?

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Pure As The Wind Driven Snow

Press puff pieces highlighted the résumés of his superstars—of Lisa Page (no comment needed), Peter Strzok (less than no comment needed), Jeannie Rhee (a former attorney for the Clinton Foundation, Ben Rhodes, and for a bit Hillary Clinton), Andrew Weissman (Clinton zealot, Obama and DNC donor, and the cheerleader to Sally Yates’s refusal to carry out a presidential order), Aaron Zebley (the former attorney for Clinton staffer Justin Cooper who set up the infamous Clinton home server and smashed to bits her mobile devices), and a host of other pros, who were all shortly to prove Trump-Russian “collusion.”

Yes, it was all dirty and I suspect it will continue to be dirty, and it likely always was dirty.

Friday, August 10, 2018

Demographics is Destiny

The trend varies among demographic groups. Native-born Hispanics and blacks used to have birth rates above the replacement rate (2.1 births per woman). Now they're below replacement, almost as low that of as native-born whites and Asians, which are down only a bit. The immigrant birth rate remains above replacement level among blacks, but only barely above among Hispanics, and below among whites and Asians.
One possible consequence: Those often-gleeful predictions that whites will soon be a minority will not be realized so soon, or maybe ever. Nor is it clear, as sociologist Richard Alba has suggested, whether often-intermarrying Hispanics and Asians will see themselves as aggrieved minorities. They might just blend in, like Italians and Poles.