One benefit is we are buying time to develop an effective vaccine or treatment. But should we be confident such a reprieve is coming any time soon? The number of times humankind has created an effective vaccine against any coronavirus currently stands at zero. While some antiviral treatments have shown promise, hopes that a “magic bullet” treatment is soon forthcoming are exactly that — hopes.
A second benefit is that “flattening the curve” through a prolonged shutdown can change the fraction of us who will eventually get this disease even without a vaccine. But this effect is smaller than one might guess.
Absent a vaccine, the epidemiology models governments currently use predict that unless we take extreme mitigation measures forever, at least 60 to 70% of us will eventually get this disease. Long-term shutdowns can change how high a fraction above this 60 to 70% eventually get infected, but not the fact that the majority of us will get infected.
https://www.startribune.com/a-month-into-mass-quarantine-what-now/569933882/?refresh=true
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