Sunday, August 4, 2019

Predictions Are Hard, Especially About the Future

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Yogi_Berra

Neils Bohr, Yogi Berra, the quote is as funny from either source. The linked article is about the many and desperate predictions of the alarmists. It reminds me of all of the doomsday cults who talked themselves into thinking that the creator was ready to end the world and bring us all home to him or her, on some specific day or other. They were convinced! Certain! And they are all still here.

It would be foolish not to worry about humanity's impact on the climate we need for survival. However, equally foolish would be to believe all the belief about how much humanity could know about what has causes the world's climate to change over the many years.

"Correlation is not the same as causation. And any gap between the two grows wider with each additional component that affects climate. A non-exhaustive list of climate inputs includes the sun, the moon, Earth’s rotation, Earth’s orbit, ocean currents, volcanic activity, and clouds, all of which are beyond man’s control."  https://issuesinsights.com/2019/07/29/will-the-global-warming-hysterics-never-tire-of-being-wrong/

My point is there's no reason to kill today out fear that we may be killing tomorrow. The alarmists believe that "saving the earth (for human use)" is worth massively increasing the power of governments, making massive reductions in human wealth and more or less giving those oh so enlightened beings, politicians, the chance to say what is good and what is bad in human behavior.

I'm not real keen on that. In fact, that anyone would be willing to do so is hard to believe.

Lastly, since AGW concerns are mostly an example of the "emperor's clothes" phenomenon, and therefore a matter of marketing (often called making people want what they don't need and can't afford) we find that we are extolled to hate big oil companies and all the evil "science deniers" they spawn. The "real" enemy then, is those few organizations that deliver the most useful product of all time at an absurdly low price every free citizen and therefore keeps more humans alive and living with more ease and choice than at any time in human history. Hmmm.

I'll know they are serious about their dire predictions when they sell all their coastal property and move to Colorado.

I'll know they are serious when they advocate killing and eating all pets as one of the desperate measures needed to save the planet (for the use of people), because there would be nothing that would stop unneeded carbon emissions faster than the cessation of feeding pets and no human rights would necessarily be violated.

I'll know they seriously believe that catastrophe approaches when they advocate the termination of all humans past a certain age, or past a functional capacity of health, or beyond the ability to produce more value than they consume - because certainly if the entire planet (specifically, the use of the planet by humans) is at stake we have to make some "hard choices".

I'll know they are more serious when US politicians simply admit that, even given the fact that the US is reducing emissions more than rejected world standards would have required, it will amount to nothing given the growing power generation of the Chinese and a similar boom in other nations just growing into industrial capacity. Why do they still guilt trip you and me when we can literally do nothing to solve the global issues?

The easy and obvious answer - fear gives them a path to power, and power is their aim anyway, AGW is the means to the end.


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