Thursday, November 5, 2009

Huber's Insight

Combine the insight on this piece with the insight from Lomborg - powerful tools for prosperity.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574419004080617302.html
BLUF: We were screwed, again, as always, by bad government policy, but the potential for natural gas to replace oil in automobiles is high, and with both financial and carbon emissions upsides (if you care about that sort of thing).
I bet the government gets it wrong again and keeps chasing after pointless carbon emission restrictions and fuel efficiency mandates that will be wasteful, expensive, ineffective in reducing carbon emissions, and will make it all the harder for the poor people (of which there will be more, not fewer) all over the world.
One excerpt: "It's often suggested that if America just sets the right carbon example, the rest of the world will follow. But most of the rest of the world is still far more interested in saving money. Most of the planet's grids will be lit mostly by coal for most of this century because coal is so abundant and cheap. More uranium -the example that the rest of the world is setting and we are largely ignoring-is the one proven, cost-competitive way to boot a lot of coal, and thus carbon, off the grid. Using gas to beat oil is the best carbon strategy because it costs less, not more, so the 80 percent of the planet that emits more than half of the greenhouse gas can embrace it, too. The developing world is setting the example here too, wherever it pumps natural gas into its heavy iron. For now, the only American example the world's poor are clearly eager to emulate is the one featuring five cars and two trucks for every ten citizens.
By throttling the gas market for so long, bad policy did much to establish oil's lock on U.S. transportation, and oil might yet lock up much of the rest of the world's, as well. Oil owns our wheels because we got started much earlier, our great-grandparents preferred liquids, the authorities throttled gas when our grandparents and parents were buying cars, and we now have a couple of trillion dollars tied up in liquid wheels. Nobody will deliver gas to gas stations until there are vehicles to buy it, and few will buy the vehicles until there's gas everywhere to buy."