Sunday, June 30, 2013

Cast Down Your Bucket

TM

It boils down to this a question. 

Do you think it is more likely that:
TM, who fancied himself a fighter, got annoyed w GZ and confronted him, punched him in the nose (breaking the nose), tackled him, and continued a violent assault on him, until GZ stopped the assault by shooting TM.

Or, TM was afraid of GZ, and tried to evade him, but GZ ran him down, got close enough to him to stick a gun in his ribs and shoot him point blank.  Then, since GZ knew what he did was criminal, he smashed his own nose and bashed the back of his own head in order to back up his falsified story of the TM attack, and he did so incredibly fast, before the first witnesses to the aftermath arrived.

Emotions are running high.  Some of us see an issue of justice - how can a child be killed, and the killer go un-prosecuted?
Some of us see an man who may be tried and convicted by a bunch of dirty rotten politicians over a political furor.

Legally, the prosecution's conduct has been horrifying.  You should hate what they are doing no matter what your beliefs about TM and GZ.

In my view, it would take a very, very smart and incredibly intent person to create a lie that isn't obvious to police, and to do so in a way that would require him to smash his own nose and the back of his skull.  He would have to construct and execute such a plan without knowing that the young man he just shot was proud of his own prowess as a fighter.  I ask you - could you smash your own nose?  I don't think I could.  If I had to invent a story, I would use what little brains I have to make sure that I was not required to smash any part of myself in order for my story to be squared away.

In other words, the "he faked the injuries" narrative holds two contradictory assumptions - GZ is a brilliant liar and made a plan based on the necessity that he injure himself.  I'll grant there are a few people who could do such a thing but there's ample reason to believe that GZ is no such crazed genius.
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"Counselor, a wise man told me once, in any crime there are 1000 ways to fuck it up, and if you are a genius, you can think of 500 of them."  Roughly quoted from the movie, Body Heat
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GZ not only had no time to concoct a story, he did not ask for a lawyer, and he did what anyone familiar with self defense would recommend against (because the stresses of such a situation make it likely you will say things that may be twisted to mean something they do not) - he not only told the police what happened, he did a video taped walk through of what happened for the police, twice.  AND took two voice stress analysis test ("lie detector tests").  If he did all that in the seconds he had after the shooting and did not contradict himself in the story he "made up", he is a flat out freaking genius.  

I remember being 17, and looking at adults but thinking I could "take them."  I remember standing up to much bigger, stronger and faster men with the naïve belief that I would be able to beat them if I had to.  It is the nature of young men to think this way.  TM's experience, based on admittedly few of his texts I've seen, was that he could win fights, and his experience about fighting was to fight classmates, who were unarmed (at least, because they were fighting in/around school one might presume they did not have a gun/knife).  In other words, he thought about fighting what I used to think about it - you may get hit or it may hurt, but it's no big thing.  "It's not a matter of life and death." 

TM was a kid who may well have been spoiling for a fight, perhaps like I would have been, and whether or not that perception is real, it appears that he chose to attack GZ.  The color photos of Zimmerman show just how potent the attack was.  In Florida law, the standard for self defense is much lower than "having a person sit on you and punch you repeatedly."

I don't think there's a boogie man here, aside from the ones we already know - the government is making a mess of this.  The President acted with what has become an expectedly low level of judgment for a man with his responsibility (playing to political winds when he could have chosen to lead). The news/entertainment industry is doing what it does best - enrage.  And the race pimps, who derive their power from the perception of racial injustice, have hurt us all by enraging a few. 

I don't know what to say about TM's mom and dad, except to say they were not victims.  TM was a struggling young man, using drugs, not finding his way, and doing what young men do - making poor  choices.  Bad luck and poor choices are a deadly brew and by the strangeness of the day, many are paying for the mistakes of these few.

Progressives Don't Like Progress

For anyone other than a "social justice" demagogue, the Supreme Court's Shelby decision, striking down Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), is cause for celebration. In real life, this is a success story: A society that overcomes ingrained, systematic racial discrimination - and does it during a 40-year span while, in parts of the world the Left somehow prefers to America, discrimination endures and becomes even more lethal. But the Left does not live in a real nation; it lives in a false narrative: The United States is the villain that can never be redeemed, and racism is not just its original but its indelible sin.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/352075/shelby-and-lefts-false-narrative-andrew-c-mccarthy

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Lying Liars and the Lies That Get Them Elected

Ellsberg shopped the classified report around town, including to eventual 1972 Democratic Party presidential nominee George McGovern, but found no takers in government. Neil Sheehan, a former UPI war correspondent who covered defense and diplomacy for the New York Times, was another matter. Sheehan knew a good story when he saw one. So did his editors, and Sunday morning, June 13, 1971, the paper began publishing excerpts. Soon, the Washington Post would join the Times.

Among other things, the Pentagon Papers, as they came to be known, showed that the shock professed by the Kennedy administration regarding the overthrow of South Vietnam's President Diem was more than disingenuous: a top secret cable from U.S. Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge suggested that the administration was behind Diem's assassination.

As for LBJ, the papers revealed that even while deriding 1964 Republican nominee Barry Goldwater as a warmonger for advocating a greater U.S. military presence in Vietnam, the Johnson administration was already deeply into planning for a vast escalation.

From the letter below by Carl Cannon of RCP.  We should be surprised at anyone who does not realize by now that the only way to be elected is to say what you think they want to hear, when that's convenient, and then do what you always intended, when that's possible.

Good morning, it's Thursday, June 13, 2013. Back at the White House after Wednesday's fundraising marathon (trips to Boston and Miami in the same day), President Obama's published schedule is a light one:

He will host Rep. John Dingell, the longest serving House member in U.S. history, at the White House; later the president will welcome gay rights activists in an East Room ceremony honoring LGBT Pride Month.

On Capitol Hill, the Senate continues debating immigration legislation. On the House floor the discussion will mainly concern the Defense Authorization Act, while the House Intelligence Committee will (behind closed doors, natch) get a briefing on the NSA spying program. This afternoon, both chambers will honor John Dingell in Statuary Hall.

As a menacing storm from the Midwest bears down on the nation's capital today, we're reminded of June 13, 1972. On that date, competing weather systems converged in the Yucatan peninsula, forming a tropical depression that soon acquired a deadly name: Hurricane Agnes.

Exactly one year earlier, on June 13, 1971, the New York Times began publication of the Pentagon Papers - an event with even more resonance today. I'll have a further word on the ramifications of that episode in a moment. First, I'd point you to our front page <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/> , which aggregates, as it does each day, an array of columns and stories spanning the political spectrum.

We also offer a nice complement of original material from our own reporters and contributors today, highlighted after a word from today's sponsor, UnitedHealthcare:

At UnitedHealthcare, we're using our experience and access to vast health care information to make health care simpler and more responsive. That's Health in Numbers. Learn more at www.uhc.com <http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=64498c06cdc4ca8399398a3664fff3ad307dc2220f08b925b0210f1b71cd2acf>

* * *

Supreme Court Bingo: How Rulings Might Play Out. Sean Trende speculates <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/06/13/supreme_court_bingo_how_rulings_might_play_out_118788.html> on which justices could be writing opinions for the 22 cases outstanding in the soon-to-end term.

Asia's New Power Brokers. In RealClearWorld, Robert Kaplan writes <http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/06/13/asias_new_power_brokers.html> that Asian nations are forging robust relationships with each other, providing a new security dynamic to go alongside the U.S.-China rivalry.

My Fifth Grade Economic Stimulus Plan. In RealClearMarkets, Charlie Musick recalls <http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2013/06/13/my_fifth_grade_economic_stimulus_plan_100400.html> a silly proposal that, unfortunately, might sound familiar these days.

Superman vs. Secularism. RealClearReligion editor Nicholas Hahn sees <http://www.realclearreligion.org/articles/2013/06/13/the_superman_we_need.html> a powerful theology underpinning "The Man of Steel."

The Whittaker Chambers Haters. RealClearBooks columnist Mark Judge weighs in <http://www.realclearbooks.com/articles/2013/06/13/why_they_hate_whittaker_chambers_56.html> on a revised edition of "Perjury: The Hiss-Chambers Case."

The Risks of In-Car Infotainment Systems. RealClearTechnology editor Greg Scoblete reports <http://www.realcleartechnology.com/articles/2013/06/12/you_risk_your_life_using_in-car_technology_515.html> on a new study showing that voice-activated features are more distracting than talking on a cellphone while driving.

* * *

What came to be known as "The Pentagon Papers" began in June 1967, when Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara commissioned a secret study of the history of the Vietnam War. McNamara had been one of the war's architects, but this project showed that he had second thoughts fairly early in the game.

In his memoirs, McNamara claimed dubiously that his motivation was to help historians, and that it was never really that big a secret. But McNamara never mentioned the project to President Johnson or Secretary of State Dean Rusk, and he conspicuously went outside normal Pentagon channels to produce it, tapping into a vein of sympathetic scholars, many of them Harvard men.

When the report came to light, Johnson and Rusk - both out of office by then -- figured that McNamara's original intention had been to give it to Robert Kennedy for use against Johnson in the 1968 primaries. That race never materialized, but the 7,000-page report survived. It was officially called "US-Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967: History of US Decision Making Process on Vietnam Policy."

One of the former Harvard PhDs who worked on it was Daniel Ellsberg, who by 1971 had completed his metamorphosis from DOD analyst to anti-war activist. Only 15 copies of the report had been made, but Ellsberg obtained access to one of them - it was in the custody of the RAND Corp., a private contractor with many defense contracts - and he surreptitiously copied the entire report and snuck it out of RAND.

Ellsberg shopped the classified report around town, including to eventual 1972 Democratic Party presidential nominee George McGovern, but found no takers in government. Neil Sheehan, a former UPI war correspondent who covered defense and diplomacy for the New York Times, was another matter. Sheehan knew a good story when he saw one. So did his editors, and Sunday morning, June 13, 1971, the paper began publishing excerpts. Soon, the Washington Post would join the Times.

Among other things, the Pentagon Papers, as they came to be known, showed that the shock professed by the Kennedy administration regarding the overthrow of South Vietnam's President Diem was more than disingenuous: a top secret cable from U.S. Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge suggested that the administration was behind Diem's assassination.

As for LBJ, the papers revealed that even while deriding 1964 Republican nominee Barry Goldwater as a warmonger for advocating a greater U.S. military presence in Vietnam, the Johnson administration was already deeply into planning for a vast escalation.

At the White House, the initial instinct of the wily Richard Nixon was to downplay the significance of the Pentagon Papers. After all, they mostly cast the spotlight on his predecessors' perfidy, not his own. But on that fateful Sunday, Henry Kissinger forcefully argued the opposite, railing against "this wholesale theft and unauthorized disclosure."

Unfortunately for Nixon's legacy, Kissinger's argument prevailed over the president's gut feeling. The administration became obsessed with the leak and went to court to try and stop publication. When he lost in the Supreme Court, Nixon directed the men around him to find extra-judicial ways to stop leaks.

"The Plumbers" were born, along with the seeds of Watergate.

Carl M. Cannon
Washington Editor
RealClearPolitics
Twitter: @CarlCannon <https://twitter.com/CarlCannon>

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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

The Fed - 100% Failure Rate

It's heady stuff, it explains with great ease why Ben Bernanke so publicly lusted to fill Alan Greenspan's chair, but it also speaks volumes about why our economy remains rather limp. Indeed, the allocation of global capital hinges on the thoughts and actions of people who are regularly wrong. By definition.

As the Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath and Phil Izzo noted on Monday, "In every year of the economic recovery, the Federal Reserve has overestimated how fast the economy would grow." Some might respond that Hilsenrath and Izzo are nitpicking, that the world's foremost central bankers are being judged on a small sampling of numbers, but then John Allison was Chairman of BB&T Bank for 20 years up to 2009. Writing about the Fed in his essential book, The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure, Allison observed that "In my career, the Fed has a 100 percent error rate in predicting and reacting to important economic turns."
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2013/06/19/all_eyes_are_on_the_fed_and_thats_the_problem_100409.html

The fatal conceit - that so few are willing to admit that even the gods of Wall Street don't know what the frock they are doing.

Vexing

The Center for Constitutional Rights and lawyers from the elite law firm of Covington Burling, however, charge in Floyd that such proactive tactics are discriminatory, since blacks and Hispanics make up the large majority of individuals stopped and questioned by NYPD cops. The claim ignores the reality that the preponderance of crime perpetrators, and victims, in New York are also minorities. Blacks, for example, constituted 78% of shooting suspects and 74% of all shooting victims in 2012, even though they are less than 23% of the city's population.

Whites, by contrast, committed just over 2% of shootings and were under 3% of shooting victims in 2012, though they are 35% of the populace. Young black men in New York are 36 times more likely to be murdered than young white men-and their assailants are virtually always other black (or Hispanic) males.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324063304578525850909628878.html

It will be interesting to see what happens if NYPD has to stop their "stop, question and frisk" practice. If crime goes back up, and people are killed who otherwise wouldn't have been - what will happen next? On the other hand, if crime levels do not rise, we'd know something quite valuable.
Minority on minority murders - heart breaking.
Is the focus on gun violence a way that minority leaders can take the focus off of minority on minority violence?

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

No "Corporate" Taxes

To my mind, this is why we should get rid of the corporate income tax--and the charitable tax deduction as well. Companies spend an enormous amount of time and money trying to structure their activity to get favorable tax treatment. Non-profits and labor unions engage in elaborate games to push as far as possible without actually breaking the law. And unelected bureaucrats are given enormous power to tell people what is and is not allowed--decisions that may have more to do with their personal feelings about the activity than the actual law. Then we all spend more time and money going into court to fight about it.

When government has power, it will be abused. Sometimes that's the unavoidable side effect of something we need to do. But this isn't. It's time to junk the entire elaborate system.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/06/12/when-the-personal-becomes-political.html

No corporate income would be best.

"Corporate income taxes" don't tax corporations, they tax the people that buy stuff from corporations. They also create mal-incentives that make every corporation less efficient - cost of avoiding tax consequences and costs of not bringing a product to market that might otherwise be marketable but for the tax consequences - and thus harm all consumers.

In addition, there are the perversions of govt power that result whenever politicians put tax deductions and exclusions up for auction.