Saturday, January 2, 2021

Herd Immunity On the Horizon?

Experts estimate that about two-thirds of the population need to have neutralizing antibodies in order to reach herd immunity. Two-thirds of the 325 million people in the United States is about 218 million people. You can get antibodies that neutralize the virus in one of two ways: taking an effective vaccine, which is only being starting to be administered, or having been infected with the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. About 19 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed cases of COVID. But confirmed cases may be the tip of the iceberg. Although estimates vary, the Centers for Disease Control believes that about eight people have been infected for each one person with a documented case. If we multiply the 19 million known cases by 8, it is possible that about 152 million people are already immune. Yet, the proportion of people who have been infected and the rate of new cases varies significantly by state.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/12/30/some_states_may_be_well_on_their_way_to_herd_immunity_144936.html

The author continues on to propose several states where the infection rates exceed 50%, and in which the rate of spread seems to be reduced.

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