At the White House on Monday, President Obama will seek to persuade the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to postpone whatever plans he may have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. Obama will argue that under his leadership, the United States "has Israel's back," and that he will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran's nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions.http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/
It's an interesting thing for a President to say. It will be interesting - in an analytical, pretend not to think about the immense human tragedy that would result, kind of way - to see if it can be done and how. There are some who speculate that one could destroy Iran, and it's nuclear aspirations, just by dropping a few bombs on Irans few gasoline production facilities. Their economy hangs on a thread of oil exportation, and their oil infrastructure is reported to be in a wretched state - no surprise in a state run enterprise (in fact, it would be a monster of a surprise if that were not the case). The Iranian water infrastructure is as bad or worse and is thought to not be capable of suporting current population levels for long (5 years? 10?).
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How well can the Iranians run the expensive Russian surface to air missle systems they bought? How deep have they buried their critical nuclear infrastructure, and who really knows where it is located? Would the US actually try to attack those locations, or just wreck Iran generally by shutting down their oil exportation, gas importation, and domestic gas production?
It is easy to think of Iran and think of the Iranian government and its exportation of terrorism to other nations and its reputation for what seem like bizarre religious beliefs and its supposed irrationality and so forth. Certainly, the rabble rousers make a lot of press by pointing to crazy Amadinejad, the so called President of Iran. But the President of Iran is unlikely to be the one doing any of the heavy lifting as regards the actions of the Iranian government, he's a figurehead. The religious leadership of the government is pulling the strings.
It's easy to think of "Iran" and ignore the repulsive conditions those sorry millions have to live with, and how much worse things will get for them if the governments of other nations decide to create war with the Iranian government.
One could ask "what do the the leaders of the Iranian government want?" There's only one reasonable assumption - they want to sustain their position of power and influence. They want to be able to prevent outside interference, and increase internal control. To do that they play the cards they have - a heavy handed state, exported terrorism to influence events, and possibly even a world wide network intended to allow them options even if they are faced with an opponent they cannot go toe to toe with - the US or Israel.
Anything the government of Iran or its mouthpieces say should be considered as truth neutral - it may or may not be true, but it isn't of any consequence either way. I wouldn't say this is much different for 90% of the things governments say around the world. Governments and the folks running them say what they think is needed to create the results they desire - truth need not be a factor. It is either total ignorance or a pretense for media figures and entertainment goofs to take seriously anything the Iranian government mouthpieces say.
I hope the US government can resist the various calls for action against the supposed nuclear threat of Iran. I hope we can learn to ignore those who think the Iranians are some unified force of religion crazy ideologues who are our mortal enemies. I hope the side show clown that is Ahmadinejad will not be used by the entertainers to whip the uninformed into a frenzy of fear and aggression. I don't see the compelling threat to US interests posed by a crumbling, bumbling, hapless Iranian government. If the Israelis want to do it, I say stand back and pray for those who will caught in the horror created by the governments that "serve" them.
It's an interesting thing for a President to say. It will be interesting - in an analytical, pretend not to think about the immense human tragedy that would result, kind of way - to see if it can be done and how. There are some who speculate that one could destroy Iran, and it's nuclear aspirations, just by dropping a few bombs on Irans few gasoline production facilities. Their economy hangs on a thread of oil exportation, and their oil infrastructure is reported to be in a wretched state - no surprise in a state run enterprise (in fact, it would be a monster of a surprise if that were not the case). The Iranian water infrastructure is as bad or worse and is thought to not be capable of suporting current population levels for long (5 years? 10?).
.
How well can the Iranians run the expensive Russian surface to air missle systems they bought? How deep have they buried their critical nuclear infrastructure, and who really knows where it is located? Would the US actually try to attack those locations, or just wreck Iran generally by shutting down their oil exportation, gas importation, and domestic gas production?
It is easy to think of Iran and think of the Iranian government and its exportation of terrorism to other nations and its reputation for what seem like bizarre religious beliefs and its supposed irrationality and so forth. Certainly, the rabble rousers make a lot of press by pointing to crazy Amadinejad, the so called President of Iran. But the President of Iran is unlikely to be the one doing any of the heavy lifting as regards the actions of the Iranian government, he's a figurehead. The religious leadership of the government is pulling the strings.
It's easy to think of "Iran" and ignore the repulsive conditions those sorry millions have to live with, and how much worse things will get for them if the governments of other nations decide to create war with the Iranian government.
One could ask "what do the the leaders of the Iranian government want?" There's only one reasonable assumption - they want to sustain their position of power and influence. They want to be able to prevent outside interference, and increase internal control. To do that they play the cards they have - a heavy handed state, exported terrorism to influence events, and possibly even a world wide network intended to allow them options even if they are faced with an opponent they cannot go toe to toe with - the US or Israel.
Anything the government of Iran or its mouthpieces say should be considered as truth neutral - it may or may not be true, but it isn't of any consequence either way. I wouldn't say this is much different for 90% of the things governments say around the world. Governments and the folks running them say what they think is needed to create the results they desire - truth need not be a factor. It is either total ignorance or a pretense for media figures and entertainment goofs to take seriously anything the Iranian government mouthpieces say.
I hope the US government can resist the various calls for action against the supposed nuclear threat of Iran. I hope we can learn to ignore those who think the Iranians are some unified force of religion crazy ideologues who are our mortal enemies. I hope the side show clown that is Ahmadinejad will not be used by the entertainers to whip the uninformed into a frenzy of fear and aggression. I don't see the compelling threat to US interests posed by a crumbling, bumbling, hapless Iranian government. If the Israelis want to do it, I say stand back and pray for those who will caught in the horror created by the governments that "serve" them.
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