Showing posts with label Various. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Various. Show all posts

Friday, January 28, 2011

Snippets

An additional benefit of a new voluntary bankruptcy law for states is that its mere existence may deter any state from ever availing itself of its provisions. If government employee union bosses know that they could have all their contracts annulled under federal bankruptcy law, either through a plan of reorganization voluntarily entered into by state leaders or by the voters through proposition, they may be far more accommodating with state governments to restructure government employee union workforces, pensions and work rules.

Federal bailouts must come to an end. Federal taxpayers in states that balance their budgets should not have to bail out the irresponsible, pandering politicians who cannot balance their budgets. Congress must allow a safe, orderly way under federal bankruptcy law for states to reorganize their finances.


He proposed huge federal "investments" in transportation (high-speed rail), "green" energy, high technology and other areas. But soon after calling us to rise to our "Sputnik moment," he proposed freezing domestic spending. As The Associated Press noted, either he's serious about the spending increases he calls investments, or the spending freeze, but he can't be serious about both because doing both is impossible.

When moments later Mr. Obama said, "We are the first nation to be founded for the sake of an idea," one felt the ghost of the Gipper hovering nearby. The president called forth more of those spirits, praising "the idea that each of us deserves the chance to shape our own destiny. That's why centuries of pioneers and immigrants have risked everything to come here."

And: "We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world." Yes!

And: "Our free enterprise system is what drives innovation." Oh, yes!

Even an Obama naysayer was thinking, Go for it, Mr. President. Unleash our nation of pioneer entrepreneurs with incentives to work, save and invest. (But why the weird slap at the all-American competitiveness of the Super Bowl?)

For a while Tuesday night, it appeared Mr. Obama would replicate Bill Clinton's almost sci-fi ability to absorb his opposition's best ideas, such as welfare reform, and re-infuse them into the body politic as his own. But no. We got high-speed rail and solar shingles.

"Our budget will make long overdue investments in priorities-like clean energy, education, health care, and new infrastructure." He extolled "new jobs that pay well" such as "installing solar energy panels and wind turbines."

This isn't a vision. It's an obsession.

Sending the completed trade agreements with Colombia and Panama to Congress for ratification should have been a lay-up for a president seeking the center. That's not happening.

What's ahead? Mainly one thing: November 2012.

If the State of the Union disappointed policy wonks, it's because the Obama presidency has entered full campaign mode. His State of the Union was a road map to a second term. Draw the Republican Congress toward the post-November spirit of reform on spending, entitlements and taxes, let these ideas twist in the wind of endless negotiation, pocket the "bipartisan" effort, and run out the clock to a three-point November victory.

Rather than work hard, live within his means and save for the future, a dissolute student decided to invent a system for beating the bank at roulette. After months of experimentation with betting patterns, his quest bore fruit: a foolproof way of creating riches - or so he thought.

The problem was, in order to exploit his genius a bankroll was required. At this point, a credulous father was inveigled into the scheme. Suspending disbelief, the hapless parent signed a six-figure cheque and wished his son good fortune as the boy left for Las Vegas.

After a few days with no contact, Dad started to fret and sent the lad a tentative message: "How are we doing?" No reply.

A week later, he tried again, only this time was rather more panicky: "What's happening?" Still no reply.

Finally, the desperate man sent an ultimatum: "Get in touch - or else!" His delusional offspring eventually replied: "Delighted to inform you system is working. Please send more money."

Greece has barely scratched the surface of a sprawling and corrupt public sector, where standards of book-keeping shame a country that lays claim to the oldest counting board yet discovered (300BC).

Greece is learning the hard way that cutting the budget deficit and reducing overall debt are not the same thing. There comes a point where austerity alone cannot deliver a solution, because the burden of unaffordable obligations is rising faster than savings can be made. Long after the bullet has been bitten, total mortgage arrears continue to deteriorate.

As long as Greece remains locked in a currency that is deutsche mark with only a hint of garlic, its economy cannot recover. A lethal combination of rising unemployment, falling wages and an exodus of talent will force it to confront reality. That will occur when either the voters decide they can no longer stand the hair shirt or the country's creditors run of out patience.

The same will apply to Portugal and, eventually, Spain. Thus the euro, as we know it, is finished.

We cannot have a useful debate on the role of government -- what it should do, for whom and at whose expense -- if Americans are highly misinformed. Obama should have dispelled some common budgetary myths.

The bill would replace the spending levels for 2011 authorized in December in a continuing resolution that expires in March with spending at the 2008 levels, for all lines in the budget except defense, homeland security, and veterans. That would save $80 billion just this year.

Then, the bill would cancel unused spending authority in the 2009 stimulus bill, for a savings of $45 billion. The Republican proposal would privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saving $30 billion more.

The largest saving comes from a 10-year freeze at 2006 spending levels for nondefense, discretionary budget programs-agriculture, national parks, medical research, waterways, environmental protection, but not for benefits such as food stamps, social security, and Medicare. This would save $2.3 trillion in the years 2012-2021.

Savings would come from cuts in the federal workforce, both in numbers of workers hired and in pay, as was suggested by Professor Paul Light of New York University . The workforce would be reduced by 15% through attrition, with only one worker hired for every two workers who quit or retire. In addition, existing workers would not be given automatic annual pay increases.

Mr. Jordan should be credited with doing the tough work of going through the budget and identifying specific cuts. The bill lists more than 100 programs slated for elimination or reduction.

Unlike Mr. Obama's plan, transportation is left to the private sector. The bill would cut, annually, $1.56 billion in subsidies for Amtrak, $2.5 billion for intercity and high-speed rail, and $2.5 billion for New Starts Transit. In addition, the federal civilian employee travel budget would be halved, saving $7.5 billion a year.

Many liberal sacred cows would be not just gored, but put down permanently. Who needs the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, with annual subsidies of $445 million, when we have the vast cornucopia of broadcast, cable and Internet offerings? Why do we need the National Endowments for the Arts and the Humanities (together, over $330 million annually in spending) when corporations fund art exhibits and concert series?

International subsidies, such as the International Fund for Ireland and Economic Assistance to Egypt, also get the hatchet, as well as contributions to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.




Snippets

When Mr. Obama talks about reducing the deficit, it's almost comical. The changes he proposes are so minuscule in terms of their effect on the budget that it's as if he is saying he can throw a rock to the moon. This country's deficit is spectacularly beyond his control. Only really painful surgery -- drastic, draconian cuts in Social Security and in Medicare, and wildly higher taxes on upper income people -- will come even close to fixing the problem.

Step back for a minute from the day to day policy fights and consider how an economy can grow faster. One way is to get people to work harder or longer. The government can contribute here with policies that reward work and investment, such as lower taxes.

A second route to faster growth is innovation, which means inventions or new processes that increase productivity. Government can help with money for basic research, but private investment, human ingenuity and luck are the main drivers.

The third way is through the more efficient use of capital, both human and monetary. These resources are scarce in any economy, and growth will be fastest if they are allowed to find their highest return. If resources are allocated to less productive uses or create asset bubbles due to bad policy, then overall growth will be slower than it should be.

In our view, this third point has been the largest but least appreciated problem in the U.S. economy in recent years. First the Federal Reserve's subsidy for credit and other policies pushed resources into the financial industry, and especially into real estate. When that bubble burst, triggering the 2008 financial panic and recession, the U.S. responded over two years with a huge expansion of the federal government.


So is this just a public relations gambit designed to win back independents and assuage business concerns to ensure money and votes in 2012?

Of course it is. The real question is will there be any follow-through?

A careful reading of Obama's words suggests he's still stuck in a central-planning mindset. Obama introduces each new appointee as someone who knows how to "grow the economy" and create jobs. The president has been pressing his economic team to come up with job-creating ideas "that excite me," according to Peter Baker's cover story in the New York Times Magazine on Sunday.

Obama doesn't need any more advisers to tell him the U.S.'s 35 percent corporate tax rate, among the highest in the world, puts the nation at a competitive disadvantage. Or that taxing overseas profits when they're repatriated to the U.S. doesn't encourage businesses to bring that money home and invest here.

Bureaucratic Suicide

On the regulatory front, Obama's intention to submit all federal rules and regulations to a cost-benefit analysis sounds nice, but what bureaucrat has ever declared himself redundant and written himself out of a job?

It reminds me of a joke about the tourist who goes to visit the Agriculture Department. As he's walking down a long, empty hallway, he hears the sound of crying coming from an office. The tourist peaks his head in and asks the employee, sobbing at his desk, "What's the matter?"

"My farmer died," the employee replied.

In the 1700s, the U.S. was an agrarian nation with 90 percent of workers engaged in farming, according to Veronique de Rugy, senior research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center in Arlington, Virginia. Today the U.S. economy has highly productive agribusinesses employing less than 2 percent of all (legal) workers. Yet "the federal government continues to subsidize agriculture," de Rugy said. "Spending for the Department of Agriculture in real terms went from $95 billion in 2000 to $142 billion in 2010."

The Republican "Pledge to America" promised to cut "at least $100 billion in the first year alone," notwithstanding "exceptions for seniors, veterans and our troops." This was never a serious proposal, given that defense, entitlements and other mandatory spending consume about four-fifths of the budget. But it was a nice round number that sounded good.

Apparently it was music to the ears of some of the small-government Republicans -- perhaps they should be called no-government Republicans -- in the House majority, because they are pressing the leadership to make good on this reckless promise. According to The Washington Post, affected agencies would suffer a 30 percent cut in funding over the next seven months.

Do Americans really want the effectiveness of, say, food safety inspection to be eroded by 30 percent? What about air traffic control? I didn't think so.
As to this last, who can believe food safety is insignificant enough to allow the government to run it?  I for one think food safety is VERY IMPORTANT, far too important for a bunch of government buffoons to be in charge of it.