The Population Time Bomb

Can you hear the song? "It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine ...."

"No fewer than 23 leading nations—including Japan, Spain, South Korea, and Italy—will see their population cut in half by 2100. China’s will drop by a stunning 48 percent, knocking it out of contention as the world’s economic super-power. This precipitous decline will not be caused by disease, famine, or any kind of natural disaster. The missing population will simply never have been born. Their would-be parents are simply forgetting to have them."

https://quillette.com/2020/12/11/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/

Demographics is Destiny

The trend varies among demographic groups. Native-born Hispanics and blacks used to have birth rates above the replacement rate (2.1 births per woman). Now they're below replacement, almost as low that of as native-born whites and Asians, which are down only a bit. The immigrant birth rate remains above replacement level among blacks, but only barely above among Hispanics, and below among whites and Asians.

One possible consequence: Those often-gleeful predictions that whites will soon be a minority will not be realized so soon, or maybe ever. Nor is it clear, as sociologist Richard Alba has suggested, whether often-intermarrying Hispanics and Asians will see themselves as aggrieved minorities. They might just blend in, like Italians and Poles.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/07/27/will_the_trend_of_low_birth_rates_be_reversed_137639.html

Demographics Is Destiny

Hard to know what to make of these fertility swings, but it is not comforting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html

Demographics Is Destiny

http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2013/07/measuring_japans_demographic_collapse_in_diapers.html
More adults in Japan in diapers than children - whoa. Some one needs to get busy over there!